On Tuesday, Hurricane Helene wasn’t yet a hurricane. The tropical storm was still churning north-northwest in the Caribbean Sea, south of Cuba and east of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. But even then, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center seemed to know with remarkable precision where the storm was destined to hit — and how hard a punch it would pack.

Hurricane Helene’s floodwaters have barely receded from Florida’s west coast, but forecasters are already tracking two more disturbances. The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance that is over the western Caribbean Sea and might strengthen in a similar spot where Helene did Tuesday before slamming into the Big Bend as a Category 4 hurricane just before midnight Thursday.