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Over the next few surveys, we’re going to introduce a series of methodological changes to the New York Times/Siena poll.

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Empirical probability uses the number of occurrences of an outcome within a sample set as a basis for determining the probability of that outcome.

TSCL's model uses monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate and the national unemployment rate.